Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1765 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a proper entry point for selling the euro. Amid the geopolitical conflict, the pair dropped by more than 50 points.

The single European currency continued to fall sharply after reports spread about the possible participation of Germany and France in a military campaign against Iran, supported by the United States and Israel. This information triggered a noticeable decline in the euro's exchange rate. It is clear that the involvement of the largest economies in the eurozone in such an operation could lead to unpredictable consequences.

Later in the second half of the day, market participants are likely to focus on the release of the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index data. This indicator is considered one of the most important measures of the health of the U.S. economy, as it reflects developments in the manufacturing sector, which plays a significant role in overall economic growth. Depending on how actual figures compare with forecasts, only minor changes in the U.S. dollar's quotes are expected, as the main movement will be driven by news regarding U.S. military actions in Iran.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.1750 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1785. At 1.1785, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro today is unlikely.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1724 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1750 and 1.1785 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1724 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1665, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the case of strong economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1750 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1724 and 1.1665 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated level where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated level where you can set Take Profit or lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, by nature, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.