Over the past week, Bitcoin's price remained virtually unchanged. The asset was in constant consolidation, moving within a range of $26.6k–$29.1k. Despite this, the breadth of the fluctuation area allows the cryptocurrency to make strong price movements of up to 5% of price changes.
The main cryptocurrency also starts the new trading week with consolidation movement to the $27.7k level. A small support level passes here, and the price breaks with great difficulty to the lower border of the range – $26.6k.
Despite this, the probability of further downward movement remains the same as the probability of growth. The crypto market and the global economy received positive news at the end of last week, and there is every reason to believe that the current BTC consolidation will end soon.
Fundamental background
The previous trading week ended with positive statistics on U.S. GDP growth in Q4 2022. The indicator grew by 2.6% against the forecast of 2.7%, and the result in the third quarter was +3.2%. U.S. GDP statistics show that despite the Fed's policies, the U.S. economy remains stable.
Data on the U.S. labor market was also released, and here we saw the first signals of a weakening of an important economic component of the Fed's policy. Key rate hikes and balance sheet cuts are starting to eat up jobs in the United States.
Jobless claims came in at 198k against expectations of 196k and the previous result of 191k. This data will serve as a signal to the Fed and its monetary policy in the near future. It is important to note that major U.S. companies are preparing for major layoffs. Disney alone plans to lay off about 7,000 people.
And the last important factor that continues to influence the crypto market is the banking crisis and the reaction of the Fed. The regulator is injecting about $300 billion into the banking sector and plans to increase the final amount to $2 trillion. Some of these injections end up in the crypto market, namely Bitcoin.
BTC/USD Analysis
As of April 3, Bitcoin's dominance level remains at 47%. This suggests that most of the injections into the crypto market or the movement of capital within the industry occur through BTC, not altcoins.
At the same time, we observe a weekly consolidation of the cryptocurrency price without significant price changes. This confirms the need for a local period of capital redistribution. The market will likely make a deep break/fall to absorb additional liquidity.
This option seems realistic, given the low trading volumes and massive profit-taking among short-term investors and miners. Despite the pressure on the BTC price, the asset has chances to resume the upward movement above $30k.
To confirm the market's bullish intentions and further movement towards $30k, Bitcoin needs to show certain signals. One of such signals can be the consolidation of BTC price above the $28.3k resistance level. This is a key level, crossing which will activate large volumes of sellers.
If the asset manages to consolidate above this level at the end of the trading day and then continue moving towards $29k, it will become a bullish signal. Firstly, the asset will gather liquidity above the psychological resistance level. Secondly, the price will finally enter the resistance area and start trading inside it.
At the same time, if the price of the asset will continue going down and break the levels of $27.7k and $26.6k-$27.1k, the potential for the corrective movement will be below $25k. As of April 3, the main downside argument for BTC is unwarranted growth triggered by large capital movements within the crypto market.
Results
The consolidation period is coming to an end. Soon, the price will test the strength of sellers and buyers, look for loopholes and weaknesses. But as long as the price remains in the $26.6k–$28.3k range, we cannot talk about a serious change in the market situation.
