EUR / USD pair (4H)
The EUR / USD pair fulfilled a rebound from the correction level of 38.2% at 1.1237 and turned in favor of the American dollar. As a result, the pair completed the fall to a correction level of 23.6% at 1.1187. Rebounding the quotations of the pair on June 19 from this level will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the EU currency and some growth towards the Fibo level of 38.2%. Yesterday, the ECB Chairman Mario Draghi made a speech at the European Central Bank forum in Portugal and it was very disappointing to traders as it forces them to sell Euro currency again. The essence of Draghi's speech was as follows: the Central Bank is concerned about weak inflation and its far from target value and is ready to stimulate the economy by any available means to correct it. In these words, traders saw hints of both a reduction in the key rate and the resumption of the asset repurchase program, which will mean the next easing of monetary policy. The only problem is that the next rate reduction will be already in a negative value since now its value is 0.0%. In general, the news sent the Euro currency to another fall and today there will be another speech by Mario Draghi and by Jerome Powell in the evening. Also today, the outcome of the Fed meeting will be known. All of these events can greatly affect the euro/dollar pair.
The Fib net formed on extremums from March 20, 2019 and May 23, 2019.
Forecast for EUR / USD and recommendations for traders:
The EUR/USD pair has completed a fall to a Fibo level of 23.6%. Thus, I recommend selling the euro today with the target of 1.1107, which was a protective order above the Fibo level of 23.6% in case that the closure occurs at 1.1187. I recommend buying the EUR/USD pair after the end of quotes from the level of 23.6% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1237 and a Stop Loss order for 1.1187.
GBP / USD pair (4H)
The GBP/USD pair has started an upward pullback, which is in no way connected with the nature of the incoming news from the US and the UK. In the US, nothing interesting is happening now, except for the speeches of Donald Trump, who once again accuses the whole world of "conspiring against the USA" and "unjust actions against America." For example, yesterday, the US president saw in Mario Draghi's words the desire of the latter to specifically lower the euro rate, which according to Trump, is a dishonest game in relation to the United States. In the UK, the election of the leader of the Conservative Party continues and Brexit is standing still and waiting for the results of these elections. Today, there will be important news on inflation in the UK in May and in the late evening we will find out what decisions the Fed took at its meeting on monetary policy. Although for the sterling pound, Brexit remains more important, for which there is no news.
The Fibo grid formed on extremums from January 3, 2019 and March 13, 2019.
GBP / USD pair (1H)
On the hourly chart, bullish divergence helped the English currency to grow slightly towards the correction level of 100.0% at 1.2558. The bearish divergence is weak but it can still work in favor of the American currency. Moreover, the resumption of the pair's decline in the direction of the correctional level 127.2% at 1.2503. Fixing the pair below the FibO level of 100.0% will work precisely in favor of the US dollar. Today, traders will closely monitor fundamental events and trade in accordance with the nature of the news. Therefore, we recommend that you closely follow the news throughout the day.
The Fibo grid formed on extremums from May 31, 2019 and June 7, 2019.
Forecast for GBP / USD and recommendations for traders:
The GBP/USD pair consolidated above the correction level of 100.0%. I recommend selling a pair with a target of 1.2503 and a Stop Loss level above 1.2558 if closing occurred below 100.0%. I do not recommend buying the pair today since there will be a lot of news today and with a high degree of probability that they will cause new sales due to the Forex market.
