For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed a low volatility of 69 points. As a result, it remained within the previously formed range. From the point of view of technical analysis, nothing has changed. The quotation continues to move in the range of 1,3200 / 1,3300, consistently working out the boundaries. Looking at the news background, we see that the speaker of the British Parliament, John Bercow, refused to vote for Brexit for the third time, referring to the agreement of 1604, according to which the question is not "voted on" again and again, unless there are key changes in its formulation. Now, London must request a deferment from Brussels until March 21. In turn, the European Union has already declared that any delay in the process to Brexit will cost the EU expenses, and urged London to present a clear plan. From the point of view of the information background, we see that there was data on unemployment in Britain yesterday, where there is a decline from 4.0% to 3.9%. In turn, the number of applications for unemployment benefits for February show an increase from 15.7K to 27.0K with a forecast of 13.1K. As a result, with such background and statistics, the pound remains within the range.
Today, we can say that the key day of the week, is the meeting of the Federal Commission on open market operations. Experts suggest that the Fed may demonstrate some measures to mitigate monetary policy, and, of course, at least say something about the fate of the rate. In any outcome, the current lull in the trading schedule can be replaced by an increase in volatility for this event. In Britain, waiting for data on inflation, where, according to forecasts, its level will not change, which is 1.8%.
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (Feb): Prev. 1.8% ---> Forecast 1.8%
United States 21:30 MSK - FOMC press conference
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we continue to observe the swing at 1.3200 / 1.3300, where the quote is currently working off the upper limit, heading down. It is probably assume that the current amplitude is maintained, with a movement towards 1.3220. What to expect next? Meetings of the Fed, where it is better to take a wait-and-see position, tracking the breakdown of existing boundaries.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in the case of a lower limit of 1.3220, with a smaller volume.But due to the meeting, this tactic can be risky. Most of the traders took a waiting position, tracking clear fixes higher than 1.3300.
- Positions for sale were initially considered after working out the border of 1.3300. Now, the transaction is being led towards 1.3220. If we do not have deals, then it is better not to twitch and take a waiting position and monitor the lower limit of 1.3200 for breakdown.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector, we see that there is a variable upward interest in the short term. Intraday perspective is set to fall while the medium-term perspective maintains the upward interest against the background of the past
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(March 20, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 24 points, which is an extremely low value for a given time segment. It is likely to assume that due to the upcoming meeting, the volatility of the day may increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1,3200 *; 1.3130 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
