To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Buyers of the European currency stepped up on Friday after poor reports on the US economy, which turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts and managed to get another false breakout in the support area of 1.1200, which I paid attention to in my forecasts. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bulls did not let the pair fall below the support of 1.1200, after which they achieved an update of the upper border of the side channel of 1.1234, a breakthrough of which took place today at the Asian session. At the moment, the bulls' task is to protect this level and form a false breakout on it, this is a signal to open long positions while expecting EUR/USD to grow to a high of 1.1280, where I recommend taking profits. A further target at the middle of the week will be the area of 1.1321. In the absence of activity at the level of 1.1236 in the morning, it is best to postpone long positions until the low of 1.1198 is updated and buy the euro from there immediately for a rebound in order to correct 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Data on inflation in Germany will be released today, which can affect the euro's direction at the beginning of the week. If the report turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, this will return pressure on EUR/USD, so an important task for sellers is to break through and consolidate below the level of 1.1236, which will lead to a sell-off to the low of 1.1198. The next test of this level will become a bearish signal and will lead to forming a new downward trend with an exit to the lows of 1.1170 and 1.1106, where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls continue to push EUR/USD after the data is released, it is best not to rush into sales, but to wait for the resistance to be updated to 1.1280, or to open short positions immediately on the rebound from the high of 1.1321, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is slightly above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by buyers to return to the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger bands

A break of the lower border of the indicator in the region of 1.1198 will increase pressure on the euro. You can count on upward correction only after a breakdown of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.1250.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
• The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.