Analysis of macro data:

There will be almost no macro data on Monday. The only thing worth mentioning is the report on industrial production in the European Union for March, which, according to expert forecasts, will be very weak. However, industrial production is not a report of such a scale that traders would wait for it and actively work it off. We might witness a weak reaction, but it is unlikely to affect traders' sentiment. And there will be no more publications during the day either in the US or in the UK. After five and three-day declines, both pairs may correct a bit upwards, but overall I expect the euro and the pound to continue to fall.

Fundamental events:

However, there will be quite a few fundamental events. Speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve. In particular, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, and Neel Kashkari will speak. All three regularly make interesting statements, and now the market needs to be confident that the Fed has either finished the cycle of raising the key rate or not. Traders will be waiting for an answer to this question from the aforementioned officials. We do not expect an immediate market reaction to their speeches, but, for example, hints of a possible one or two more rate hikes in 2023 will support the dollar in the medium term, as such monetary tightening is not planned and has not yet been worked off by the market. And we are unlikely to hear statements that the Fed will no longer raise the rate, as inflation is still quite far from the target level, and there are no guarantees that it will continue to slow down until the end of the current year.

General conclusions:

On Monday, several important events are included in the calendar, but they will be pushed into the background. In other words, there's no need to expect an immediate reaction. We are talking about the speeches of Fed representatives. And it's also difficult to expect a market reaction from the EU industrial production report, a maximum of 20-30 points. Therefore, volatility is likely to decrease, and there's a possibility of a flat.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.

2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.

3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.

4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.

5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).

Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.