La reunión de septiembre del Banco Central Suizo pasó silenciosa e imperceptiblemente. La cumbre en Salzburgo, las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y China y los acontecimientos en el mercado petrolero eclipsaron la reunión de los miembros del regulador suizo. Los operadores no esperaban movimientos inesperados del SNB, y sus expectativas estaban plenamente justificadas. El banco central repitió las tesis, expresadas antes, como una copia.
Permítanme recordarles que hace tres años, el BNS "desató" el euro de la moneda nacional (que estaba en el nivel de 1,20) y desde entonces considera que el valor del franco es demasiado alto en relación con otras monedas, y especialmente con respecto al moneda única. El jefe del BNS, Thomas Jordan, lo declara regularmente, en casi todas las reuniones del regulador. Por la misma razón, el Banco Central no ve ninguna razón para ajustar su política monetaria actual. Los expertos creen que el BNS no considerará la posibilidad de cambiar su política antes de la segunda mitad de 2020, por lo tanto, las reuniones del regulador suizo pueden afectar la dinámica del franco solo si Jordania decide bajar aún más la tasa de interés en el área negativa. Sin embargo, tal escenario también es poco probable.
Despite such a nondescript information story, the pair USD / CHF fell more than a hundred points yesterday, and today, it continued to decline, having already reached the April lows. The phlegmatic SNB could not provide the franc with such impulse growth, so in this case, the reason is the general weakening of the dollar.
To be more precise, the initial reason for changing the interests of traders is to reduce the overall geopolitical tensions. An inter-Korean summit held in Pyongyang with the participation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in neutralized concerns over the North Korean problem. The leaders of the two Koreas at the first meeting over the past 10 years were able to agree on many key issues. In particular, the profile ministers signed a military agreement (details of which, however, were not disclosed). In addition, North Korea has pledged to close and dismantle its nuclear test site, and in the presence of representatives of international organizations. In general, the meeting was held "in a warm and friendly atmosphere," as they used to say in Soviet newspapers.
It should be recalled that on the eve of the inter-Korean summit, President Donald Trump accused China that he had withdrawn from the process of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula because of the trade war with the United States. But the outcome of the bilateral meeting suggests that the DPRK is still on the way to disarmament, despite earlier statements of the opposite nature. Beijing has a strong political influence on Pyongyang, so the "shadow of the Chinese" is certainly present here, and therefore Trump will have fewer reasons for criticizing the PRC in this context.
This fact reduced the demand for defensive assets, including the US dollar, which recently enjoys this status. The resumed talks between Washington and Ottawa on the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) provided additional support to risky currencies to the detriment of defensive instruments. The US-China trade conflict also stopped supporting the growth of the dollar. The de facto market ignored the exchange of duties, thus puzzling many market participants.
Some of them say that traders were preparing for more stringent measures (in particular, to 25 percent duties, and not 10 percent), whereas the White House chose a relatively soft option. Other analysts see a deeper reason for the decline in the dollar. In their opinion, greenback is getting cheaper already because of the trade war, as the market saw risks for the growth of the American economy. Weak inflation data, paired with the ongoing trade conflict, can affect the resolve of the Fed's members regarding the rate of interest rate increase. Secondary macroeconomic indicators, released this week (the volume of issued construction permits and sales of housing in the secondary market), also found themselves in the "red zone", demonstrating a slowdown. Given the fact that the Fed's September meeting will be held next week, the market begins to discuss possible scenarios of the development of events, and this fact also exerts pressure on the dollar.
However, the voiced options do not contradict and do not exclude each other. The dollar is under a certain pressure of the fundamental picture and only the "hawkish" meeting of the Federal Reserve is able to return the force of greenback for a large-scale restoration. Until then, the US currency will be vulnerable enough, including paired with the franc.
Desde un punto de vista técnico, la situación es la siguiente. El par en el gráfico diario está bajo la presión de la tendencia del sur, que se confirma con el indicador de la señal bajista "Desfile de líneas", indicador Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. Además, el vector de movimiento descendente se confirma mediante la colocación del precio en la línea inferior del indicador de Bandas de Bollinger con los intentos de analizarlo. El objetivo a medio plazo del movimiento descendente del par es la marca de 0.9500, que coincide con el límite inferior de la nube de Kumo en el gráfico semanal.
