empty
15.05.2018 02:18 AM
The long-term outlook for the euro- Part 2

At the end of December last year, an example of the single European currency technical analysis in the long-term outlook in January 2018 using the Tom DeMarq sequent technique https://www.instaforex.org/en/forex_analysis/196443, showed a radical change in the bearish trend of the euro. But a few months passed before we received a second signal of this trend break and now here is an explanation why the reversal occurred not in January, but only in April.

In the classic version of the Sequence indicator, as described by DeMark himself, the turn or rather the depletion of the trend came with the 13th bar after the counter of these bars (candles) started, at which the current bar closes below the minimum of the second earlier candle. Details of this technique can be found in Jack Schwager's book Technical Analysis in the early years of the 2000s. Later, computer versions of the Sequence appeared, which very conveniently warned about the depletion and spread of the market. Computer development showed that statistically in the currency market (and not in the commodity market, under which this indicator was compiled), the trend reversal occurs more often at the 9th bar than at the 13th which reflected by the allocation of the figure "9" . Of course, the classic version of DeMarque were always be remembered, but the fundamental picture of the market showed that the turn should just about happen in December last year, which prompted the conclusion that the euro is turning on the 9th bar, as it happened before several times since 1997. In April, it showed that the turn occurred on the 13th bar and this turn was confirmed in May by launching the 1st decreasing candle. Now it's time to adjust the decline targets for the euro in the long-term.

This image is no longer relevant

First, simply count 24 bars to the right by analogy of the fall from October 1998 to October 2000, which is indicated in the figure by the brown branch 3. Here, the Dow theory will be used to postulate that history repeats itself. The expected goal can not be determined but the time will be revealed which is February 2020.

Now let's switch to graphic constructions. In general, they are the same as they were in December last year, but with acceptable adjustments. First of all, this refers to the falling channel of a dark-lilac color (the upper border of the channel is highlighted with a thickened inscription with ticks, now it is built on three price highs). The lower boundary is paralleled from the October 2008 lows, which is the first branch of an enchanting price drop during the "mortgage" crisis.

This image is no longer relevant

Red inclined lines are high-speed lines of incidence, they are parallel to a thickened baseline. Crossing the speed line. The first such magnetic precision is April 2019 at a price of 1.0104. This point exactly coincides with the support of another price channel. A certain price is close to the Fibonacci level of 161.8% and exactly coincides with the lows of July 1999.

But the potential temporary decline in the euro will be identified until February 2020. Probably, there will be the second and the final price of the bearish trend. The price is given by the intersection of the timeline with the lower boundary of the brown channel and the red high-speed line - 0.8347. In connection with that, the price coincides with the lows of July 2001. The intersection of the red high-speed line with the lower border of the blue channel gives a price of 0.8518. Hence, the target range of 0.8347-0.8518 can be acquired which will include the price in February 2020.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Análisis técnico para la semana del 16 al 21 de diciembre, del par de divisas GBP/USD.

La semana pasada, el par, moviéndose hacia abajo, rompió el nivel de retroceso del 14,6% – 1,2624 (línea de puntos azul), cerrando la vela semanal en 1,2618. Durante la próxima

Stefan Doll 09:17 2024-12-16 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.