To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Yesterday, several excellent signals were formed to sell and buy the pound, which made it possible to earn good money. Let's take a look at the 5-minute schedule and figure out where it was possible and necessary to enter. In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3429 and advised you to make decisions on entering the market. Despite fairly good data on business activity in the UK manufacturing sector, which jumped above economists' forecasts in February, the British pound failed to catch on to the resistance of 1.3429. Forming a false breakout at this level resulted in creating excellent entry points into short positions, which resulted in a sell-off of GBP/USD in the morning support area of 1.3387, allowing around 40 points of profit to be taken. A false breakout at 1.3387 and a buy signal were not long in coming. The upward movement was about 30 points and then the pressure on the pound returned. The bears also failed to move below 1.3387 on the second attempt, which led to a buy signal, but not so strong. The growth was about 15 points, after which the bears achieved a breakthrough of 1.3387. This area did not reach the bottom-up test, so I did not wait for a sell signal. Long positions on the rebound from 1.33908 brought about 20 points of profit.

Pound bears aim to update the February lows, but bulls are not going to give up the market so easily. It is clear that further aggravation of the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine will only pull down the GBP/USD pair, so I would not count on special demand from major players yet. Today there are no statistics on the UK economy and only a few representatives of the Bank of England speak. It is unlikely that their statements will carry much weight. It is important to protect the support of 1.3303 during the European session. You can consider long positions from this level after forming a false breakout there, since this entry will be made against a bear market. If the pound grows in this scenario it will lead to a resistance of 1.3336, formed by yesterday's results . Only a breakthrough and a reverse test of this area from top to bottom will demolish a number of bears' stop orders, which will allow the pound to regain its positions more actively. The target in this case will be the 1.3369 area, where the moving averages are playing on the bears' side. A more difficult task is to update the resistance at 1.3405, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD falls further during the European session and the bulls are not active at 1.3303, and most likely it will be - it is unlikely that the statements of the member of the ILC of the Bank of England Silvana Tenreiro and the deputy governor of the Bank of England for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe will have a positive impact on the pound, it is best not to rush with long positions. The nearest support in this case will be last month's low at 1.3270, but I advise you to open long positions there only when a false breakout is formed. You can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3232, or even lower - from a low like 1.3200, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Bears are still in full control of the market and talking about the pound's growth, or about its causes, which obviously do not exist, does not make any sense right now. Further geopolitical uncertainty will continue to put pressure on risky assets. Today's nearest target will be the support of 1.3303, but it would also be nice to think about how to defend the resistance of 1.3336. A breakthrough and a reverse test of 1.3303 will increase pressure on the pair, which will provide the first entry point into short positions with the goal of another fall to the lows: 1.3270 and 1.3232. A more distant target will be the 1.3200 area, where I recommend taking profits. In case GBP/USD grows during the European session, I advise you to take a closer look at short positions in the area of the intermediate resistance of 1.3336. Forming a false breakout at this level will provide a good entry point into short positions. In case the bears are not active at 1.3336, it is best to postpone short positions to a larger level of 1.3469, where the moving averages are playing on the bears' side. I also advise you to open short positions there in case of a false breakout. It is possible to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.3405, or even higher - from a high like 1.3435, counting on a correction of the pair down by 20-25 points within the day.

I recommend for review:

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for February 22 showed a sharp increase in short positions and a reduction in long ones. This again led to the return of the negative value of the delta - the market continues to maintain equilibrium even in the conditions of military operations. In the context of a tough geopolitical conflict that has affected almost the entire world, it is not surprising that short positions on risky assets are only beginning to increase. This report has not yet affected the sell-off that was observed at the end of last week, so it's too early to talk about real figures. It makes no sense to talk about what the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve's policy will be, since in the event of an aggravation of the military conflict, it will not matter at all. Now Russia and Ukraine have sat down at the negotiating table, and much will depend on the results of these meetings – there will be a lot of them. In the current conditions, it will not be too correct to consider the COT report, especially considering its secondary information for the trader. I advise you to be quite careful about risky assets and buy the pound only as the tense relations between Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the US weaken. Any new sanctions actions against Russia will have serious economic consequences, which will affect the financial markets. The COT report for February 22 indicated that long non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 50,151 to the level of 42,249, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 47,914 to the level of 48,058. This led to the formation of a negative value of the non-commercial net position from the level of 2,247 to the level of -5,809. The weekly closing price rose to 1.3592 against 1.3532.

Indicator signals:

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a bear market.

Moving averages

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of growth, the average border of the indicator around 1.3336 will act as resistance. In case the pair falls, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3270 will act as support.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.