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26.06.2019 10:03 AM
A bit of correction (Review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 06.26.2019)

Although there was no reason for it, the dollar was fairly confident in recovering, taking the word "absolutely" as the sales of new homes in the United States grew by 1.9% and fell by 7.8%. In absolute terms, sales decreased from 679 thousand to 626 thousand. Thus, the dollar growth is due solely to the alignment of imbalances that have arisen as a result of the previous FOMC meeting. This led to a significant oversold of the dollar and the market clearly had to make some adjustments. This is evident in the fact that the dollar strengthened in the morning even before the publication of American statistics. Moreover, it continued to grow after the depressing data on new home sales became known.

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Another performance by Jerome Powell introduced a certain diversity in the same-type picture of the day and in fact, it stopped the dollar from strengthening. While the head of the Federal Reserve System uttered in many ways ritual and little meaningful words, market volatility has increased quite substantially. In addition to countless ceremonial phrases, the fact is that Jerome Powell confirmed once again the changing moods of members of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations. He did not say a word about the need to reduce the refinancing rate but reiterated that the risks to the economy had increased slightly, which requires the regulator to more closely monitor changes in the main macroeconomic indicators. In fact, this is another element in preparing the public for a change of course of the Federal Reserve System.

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The first thing to pay attention today is the data on approved mortgage loans in the UK, especially since their number should increase from 42,989 to 43,200. Given the high importance of the real estate market for the British economy, this news can be perceived positively. Mark Carney is also speaking today but they are not expecting anything from the head of the Bank of England, as everyone understands that the regulator will not take at least some steps until the situation with Brexit is resolved. First, you need to understand the consequences of Brexit in the economy of the United Kingdom, and only then do something. However, it is with this very understanding that everything is extremely ambiguous amid an unregulated Brexit with completely unpredictable consequences looms on the horizon. Thus, Mark Carney will once again confine himself to ritual words about it.

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However, today, there are data on orders for durable goods from the United State, which can show an increase of 0.2%. And although growth is expected to be modest, there will be no limit to investor optimism after these orders declined by 2.1% in the previous period. True, optimism will have to be somewhat diminished as stocks at wholesale warehouses may increase by another 0.5%. after all, these same stocks have been growing for a very long time since their recorded last decline in October 2007. The growth of stocks over a long period of time indicates the development of a crisis of overproduction, therefore, there is nothing to rejoice about. However, very few people will usually look into this figure but orders for durable goods have constantly led market participants in an excited state.

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It is worth waiting for the slow decline of the single European currency to the level of 1.1350 since more substantial news is needed something more serious.

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The pound is also waiting for a decline, although at first, it will show an upward trend. But in the end, it will have to go down to 1.2625.

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