Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

The UK is the only one who will release macro data on Tuesday. We mean at least relatively important reports. So, it makes sense to analyze only them. The unemployment rate, changes in the number of jobless claims, and the wage level will be published early in the morning. Frankly, there are no important reports among them. Of course, if, for example, unemployment unexpectedly increases by 0.5%, it will provoke a serious market reaction. Or the number of claims for unemployment benefits will rise or fall sharply. But it is impossible to predict in advance what the values of these reports will be. So let's put it this way: any of these reports can provoke a strong reaction, but only if results seriously differ from forecasts. And, naturally, they can only affect the GBP/USD pair. However, the pound may in turn influence the euro.

Fundamental events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, you can take note of the speeches of Elderson (European Central Bank) and Bowman (Federal Reserve). Again, remember that both speeches are scheduled for the night. Therefore, they will not be able to influence the pairs' movement during the day. Elderson rarely makes loud statements, so I don't expect any potentially important information from him. There are more important statements from Bowman. Since several members of the Fed have said in the last few days that the rate should continue to rise, another hawkish statement will further increase the likelihood of a new 0.25% tightening of the Fed's monetary policy in May. Such statements can support the dollar. I believe that, logically, the US currency should continue to strengthen in any case, as it has been falling for too long and without good reason. Therefore, a hawkish stance might give a reason for the bears to proceed further.

General conclusions:

Tuesday promises to be a fairly dull day. At least, for the EUR/USD pair. For the pound, there will be a few reports, while there's nothing for the euro and the dollar during the day. Nevertheless, I believe that both pairs should continue to fall. From time to time, the market may take a break for a day or two, correct, but overall, I don't see any reasons for both currencies (pound and euro) to start a new round of growth.

Basic rules of the trading system:

1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.

2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.

3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.

4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.

5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.

6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).

Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.