empty
17.08.2022 11:24 PM
Double-digit inflation in Britain and recession for 2-3 years

This image is no longer relevant

Inflation in the UK accelerated more than expected last month to a 40-year high, putting more pressure on consumers and increasing pressure for action from the government and the Bank of England.

This image is no longer relevant

The consumer price index rose 10.1% in July from a year earlier, after rising 9.4% a month earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. The figure was higher than expected by both the BoE and private sector economists.

This image is no longer relevant

Rising food prices contributed the most to the month-on-month gains, indicating inflationary pressures extend beyond energy. Investors moved to pricing in a 2 percentage point increase in the BoE's key rate to 3.75% by May next year.

This image is no longer relevant

"Food prices have risen markedly, especially for baked goods, dairy products, meat and vegetables, which has also been reflected in higher takeout prices," said Grant Fitzner, chief economist at ONS. Pets, toilet paper rolls, toothbrushes and deodorants also pushed up inflation in July."

This image is no longer relevant

Andrew Sentance, a former board member of the BoE, said the key rate may have to be raised to 3% or 4% because politicians are "behind schedule."

Core inflation - excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco - accelerated to 6.2% in July from a year earlier, higher than economists had expected of 5.9%.

These figures exacerbate the cost of living crisis as wages continue to fall due to rising prices for goods and services of all kinds. The BoE expects inflation to top 13% in October as energy caps reset and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey signaled he was ready for further interest rate hikes. Investors are expecting another 50 bps rise in September.

Challengers seeking to replace Boris Johnson as prime minister are promising further aid to those who are struggling to pay their bills.

"Rising inflation is really putting pressure on real wages, even with strong wage growth," said Mike Bell, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. "And it's only going to get worse with the increase in electricity bills in October."

The main British stock index technically has a huge downside potential:

This image is no longer relevant

Economists are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the UK as the risk of a recession is now seen as much more likely due to rising price pressures. The BoE expects the recession to start in the fourth quarter and last until early 2024.

The central bank expects inflation to top 13% later this year as the central bank allows electricity bills to rise again. This would be the worst performance since September 1980, when Margaret Thatcher's government struggled to bring the wage and price spiral under control.

Separate data showed that price pressure on pipelines appeared to be easing, with fuel and raw material prices rising just 0.1% in July, the smallest monthly increase since December. This was mainly due to the fall in crude oil prices during the month. Commodity prices still rose 22.6% year-on-year, only slightly below the record high in June.

Product prices rose 1.6% mom and 17.1% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase since 1977.

This image is no longer relevant

Bailey accused Russia of cutting off natural gas supplies, driving up the cost of electricity across Europe and boosting inflation. Gas futures, projected by the BoE this month, were nearly double their levels in May and rose even more last week.

This growth is reflected in the cost of goods and services, prompting people across the country to demand higher wages. Railroad workers are planning another round of strikes this week, and teachers, lawyers and nurses are considering taking their own measures.

Inflation-adjusted real wages fell 3% in three months, though June was the sharpest pace since 2001, according to official data released Tuesday. Employment increased by 160,000 in the second quarter, down 46% from the three months to May, and job openings fell for the first time since August 2020.

"The cost of living crisis is now very real for both households and businesses, so a concrete way is needed to support vulnerable populations with higher energy bills," said Alpesh Palea, lead economist at the Confederation of British Industry.

Andrey Shevchenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

美國美元:每週預覽

美國美元仍然是人們關注的焦點,在「桌子的頭席」。它是對唐納德·特朗普的外交和貿易政策變化作出反應的第一種貨幣,促使其他貨幣也對此作出調整。

Chin Zhao 00:49 2025-05-26 UTC+2

英鎊:每週預覽

雖然歐元區的接下來一周可能相對平靜,市場將專注於特朗普未來的言論及歐盟的可能回應,然而在英國基本上將沒有任何重要事件發生。因此,英磅的波動將完全取決於特朗普上週五是否在開玩笑(這是非常可能的情況)以及歐盟會如何反應。

Chin Zhao 00:49 2025-05-26 UTC+2

歐元:每週前瞻

這一週只展示了一件事——圍繞唐納·川普和貿易戰的新聞流仍然是市場的主導因素,如果不是唯一的驅動因素。當然,川普並不是每天都在威脅新的關稅,貿易談判也不是每天都中止。

Chin Zhao 00:49 2025-05-26 UTC+2

黃金反彈,因財政風險再度浮現

隨著春季接近尾聲,黃金在極端之間來回波動。由於樂觀情緒認為在華盛頓和北京之間的貿易休戰之後,白宮的保護主義政策已經達到頂峰,截至5月16日的一周對於貴金屬來說是最糟糕的一周。

Marek Petkovich 17:31 2025-05-23 UTC+2

AUD/JPY。分析與預測

今日,澳元/日元匯率開始吸引買入興趣,隨著澳大利亞元需求的出現,抑制了其自本月高位的回落。 今天, 美國副國務卿Christopher Landau與中國外交部副部長馬朝旭會晤重申了保持開放溝通和討論具有共同重要性的廣泛議題的承諾。

Irina Yanina 17:25 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD/CAD:分析與預測

由於美國美元的廣泛疲弱,該貨幣對趨勢下行,接近1.3800的關鍵心理水平。 交易者提高了他們對美聯儲降息預期,這是由於上週發布的消費者物價指數(CPI)和生產者物價指數(PPI)數據低於預期。

Irina Yanina 16:43 2025-05-23 UTC+2

美元向歐元宣戰

新事物往往是被遺忘的舊事物。隨著春天即將結束,那句早已被拋之腦後的口號“賣出美國”在市場上重新流行起來。

Marek Petkovich 14:59 2025-05-23 UTC+2

美元/日元:日元發生了什麼情況?

美元/日元貨幣對正經歷加劇的價格波動。在四月底時,該對大幅下滑,達到七個月低點139.90。

Irina Manzenko 13:52 2025-05-23 UTC+2

市場混亂將持續(#USDX和黃金價格可能會持續下跌)

儘管唐納·川普的混亂行動使得市場持續盲目行進,但他正試圖如 Baron Munchausen 自己拔自己的頭髮般把美國從一個深刻且全面的危機中拉出來。 投資者似乎已經接受了這個由美國總統引發的混亂時期將在地緣政治和經濟上無限延續的事實。

Pati Gani 10:19 2025-05-23 UTC+2

市場收斂尾巴

不合時宜的必要項目。眾議院已批准唐納·川普的減稅計劃。

Marek Petkovich 09:29 2025-05-23 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.