EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD pair began to correct on Friday. After its strongest growth on Wednesday and Thursday, the correction was a fairly logical scenario. At the same time, many traders were counting on the fact that now the long-awaited upward trend would begin. Unfortunately for the euro and for these traders, the reality is much more harsh. As soon as the impact of the results of the Federal Reserve meeting ceased, the euro immediately rolled down. If it went up by 220 points on Thursday, then on Friday it simply fell by 160 as part of a correction, that is, by three quarters. And at this time, it is again located only 140 points from its local lows. Thus, the downward trend is definitely preserved, and the peak that the pair can count on is a slightly stronger correction than the one we saw last week. The report on inflation in the European Union in the final assessment for May had no effect on the pair's movement.

There were few trading signals on Friday and they all left much to be desired. The first signal was formed only when the price reached the critical line and rebounded from it. This buy signal turned out to be false, but the price went up 15 points with grief in half, so Stop Loss should have been set to breakeven. Further, a sell signal was formed when the price overcame the Kijun-sen line. After that, it again went down 15 points, but on reaching the nearest target level it could not become like it. The last signal to buy, when the price again overcame Kijun-sen, should not have been worked out, since it was formed too late. As a result, two deals, both were closed by Stop Loss at breakeven.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro raised a lot of questions. Recall that in the past few months, they showed a blatant bullish mood of professional players, but the euro fell all the time. At this time, the situation is beginning to change, and again, not in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, but the euro was falling, now the mood has become bearish... During the reporting week, the number of long positions decreased by 23,200, while the number of shorts in the non-commercial group increased by 33,300. Thus, the net position fell by 56,500 contracts in just a week. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that now even major players do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is now lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 6,000. Therefore, we can well expect that now not only the demand for the US dollar will remain strong, but also the demand for the euro will decline. Again, this may lead to an even greater fall in the euro. In principle, over the past few months or even more, the euro has not been able to show even a strong correction, not to mention something more. Its highest upward movement was about 400 points. All fundamental, geopolitical factors remain in favor of the US dollar.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 20. The new week is unlikely to bring anything good for the euro.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 20. Pound: rapid rise, rapid fall.

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on June 20. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

EUR/USD 1H

The pair had just begun to form something similar to an upward trend on the hourly timeframe, when it immediately began a strong downward correction. Therefore, at the moment, the euro's succeeding growth is a big question. Theoretically, the pair may continue corrective growth this week, as there will be practically no macroeconomic statistics and fundamental events in the European Union and the United States. Today, we highlight the following levels for trading - 1.0340-1.0359, 1.0400, 1.0485, 1.0579, 1.0637, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0585) and Kijun-sen (1 .0478). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Not a single important or even just interesting event is planned either in Europe or in the US. After the pair corrected on Friday, it would be logical to see at least a new attempt to continue the growth. However, it is far from a fact that the euro will find the strength to move upward.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.