Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

There was a signal to sell at 1.1720 that coincided with the MACD line being at the overbought area. It provoked a decline in the pair, but the movement was not as large as expected because economic data on the Euro area turned out weaker than the forecasts. Following that was a signal to buy, which set off a 20-pip increase in the pair. And, in the afternoon, another buy signal prompted a 35-pip rise in EUR / USD.

According to the report of IHS Markit, growth in the EU manufacturing and service sectors slowed much more than expected, which, in turn, brought overall activity to a five-month low and production costs to their highest level in 21 years. Composite PMI is also contracted.

In the US, the Department of Labor released a report saying jobless claims rose for two consecutive weeks, putting pressure on dollar.

Today, there will be a report on German business environment from Ifo, which, if turns out better than expected, could lead to a rise in EUR / USD. This may continue in the afternoon if the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is not hawkish. There will also be data on US home sales in the primary market.

For long positions:

Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1750 (green line on the chart) and then take profit at the level of 1.1786. The pair may climb this week if data from Germany exceed expectations. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

It is also possible to buy at 1.1728, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1750 and 1.1786.

For short positions:

Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1728 (red line on the chart) and then take profit at the level of 1.1688. A decline will occur if the Euro area reports weak economic data and if the US shows impressive improvements in its real estate market. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

It is also possible to sell at 1.1750, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1728 and 1.1688.

What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.