While the bitcoin exchange rate stands in one place and does not know which direction to choose, according to CryptoCompare, in June of this year, for the first time in 2021, more cryptocurrency derivatives were sold than real coins. Trading volumes on both the spot and derivatives markets decreased by more than 40% last month. After the biggest drop in May, the market share of derivatives in June was 53.8% compared to 49.4% in May. The volume of derivatives in June amounted to $3.2 trillion, and the total spot volumes reached $2.7 trillion.
The company notes that during the crypto winter, which was observed after the largest bitcoin jump in 2018, the cryptocurrency derivatives market often exceeded the spot market.
In the chart below, you can see the monthly drop in the volume of bitcoin futures trading in billions of US dollars.
It is clear that as a result of the fall of bitcoin and the decrease in volatility, spot trading volumes decreased by 42.7%, while in June of this year, the total volume of derivatives fell by only 40.7%. Open interest in bitcoin and ether futures also fell by 31.8% and 29.3%, respectively. At the moment, the largest derivatives exchanges are Binance, OKEx, and Bybit.
But despite this, there is also good news, which once again proves the competent approach of investors to the market.
Speculators are again decreasing, but the number of real crypto enthusiasts is only increasing. The Glassnode report indicates that BTC reserves on centralized exchanges fell to April levels when bitcoin was above $60,000. Last time, during the growth phase, most of the BTC was bought by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and other institutional funds, which led to a constant net outflow of cryptocurrency from exchanges. But when a sharp decline began in May, speculators and investors quickly returned to the market and began to move coins to exchanges en masse for subsequent sale. This only accelerated the decline of the market in the future. Now, judging by the graph, investors have started accumulating the first cryptocurrency again.
This is a very good sign for the cryptocurrency market, as it indicates that large investors who actually earn on the market believe in the further growth of bitcoin in the future and are in no hurry to get rid of it. Apparently, even in the case of a fall to $10,000, which everyone has been talking about so much lately, nothing will change for the industry. It is enough to recall the fall of bitcoin to the level of $3,500 after rising to a maximum of $20,000. Large investors remained and continued to accumulate their positions, which then resulted in an increase in the area of $60,000. History repeats itself.
As for the technical picture of bitcoin, it has not changed after the weekend. Buyers have real problems with the breakout of the $36,000 resistance, which creates quite a lot of problems for further growth. A breakout of this range will lead to a new upward wave to the upper border of the side channel of $41,100. Only after the breakout of this range can we seriously talk about a new wave of BTC growth to the highs of $46,700 and $52,000. The bears face a completely different task. First, they need to prevent bitcoin from going above $36,000, and then somehow break below the support of $32,400, which was formed at the end of last month. Only after that can one expect a decline to the area of the lower border of the side channel at $30,000. A breakdown of this level will collapse the rate to the lows of $25,700 and $21,650. It is still too early to talk about $10,000, but in the future, this level can become the real bottom of the cryptocurrency market.
In conclusion, I would like to say a few more words about the fact that Fidelity Digital Assets plans to pay more attention to the cryptocurrency market. According to Tom Jessop, president of Fidelity Digital Assets, the company plans to increase its staff by 70% at once, because the demand for cryptocurrencies continues to increase, as well as interest in this industry in general. Fidelity Digital Assets is an asset management subsidiary of Fidelity Investments. Jessop also noted that he is facing a great demand for ether.
The new employees will focus on creating new products that are offered in the crypto asset market, in addition to bitcoin. The company will also provide services for trading digital currencies.
