Forex Analysis & Reviews: 01.02.2021 - Experts see positive outlook...

01.02.2021 11:37 AM

Experts see positive outlook for the Crude oil market in the medium and long term

Crude oil prices noted positive dynamics on Monday morning. Major brands are growing amid clear signals that the global black gold market is unlikely to face an oversupply shortly, which experts spoke so much about just a few days ago. The reason for talking about the absence of an overabundance was the news from OPEC. According to the latest data from the organization, countries that have ratified the agreement on the voluntary reduction of their own production continue to follow it almost strictly (with rare exceptions). This means that production will decline as planned, which will compensate for the excess supply on the market.

OPEC stressed that in the first month of 2021, the plan to reduce production was fulfilled by 99%. However, for now, these are only preliminary estimates, which will still be refined. Nevertheless, this news has already significantly raised the mood of investors, who have a more clear hope that a way out of the crisis in the oil market will be possible soon.

Moreover, Chevron Corp. has already stated that it does not intend to increase the production of black gold until there are clear and stable signals of no further deterioration of coronavirus infection across the globe, particularly in the US. The huge increase in the number of new COVID-19 infections is still the biggest deterrent to the hydrocarbon market. The company said that so far they have put their plan for oil production, developed for 2021, on pause, since there is already enough oil on the market that has not been sold, and the production of a new volume will only reduce the cost of raw materials which will only be more unprofitable. Nevertheless, the organization's management indicated that it can return to maximum production at any time if there are obvious reasons for this.

According to preliminary data, such favorable conditions for increasing supplies and production will appear no earlier than the second half of this year, and this is according to the most positive preliminary assumptions of experts. While some continue to argue that the situation may still not stabilize until next year. Either way, there is little reason for investors to be happy about.

The price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in April on the trading floor in London rose 0.82% or $0.45, to $55.49 per barrel. On Friday, the session ended with a decrease in the value of contracts by 0.1% or $0.06, which sent the final price at $55.04 per barrel.

The price of futures contracts for WTI light crude oil for delivery in March on the electronic trading floor in New York gained 0.57% or $0.3, to $52.50 per barrel. At the end of trading on Friday, a decrease was noted by 0.3% or $0.14, which sent the final price at $52.2 a barrel.

In general, over the past week, the price of the Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, while the WTI brand, on the contrary, was in the red by 0.1%. At the end of the first month of 2021, the price of Brent increased by 7.9%, and WTI by 7.6%.

Meanwhile, most analysts are still inclined to believe that there is still quite a bit of confidence in the future of the black gold market, so taking careless steps is extremely thoughtless and risky, especially until the most important threat - the coronavirus pandemic - is removed.

The problems have already begun to manifest themselves more clearly. In particular, a new wave of infection is gradually covering China. The situation on the eve of the Lunar New Year looks especially disappointing. The indicator of business activity in the country has already significantly decreased in the first month of 2021 amid all these events. Moreover, a decrease was noted both in the industrial and service sectors, which causes even greater problems.

However, so far the medium and long-term prospects for the crude oil market are more than positive. And the problems that exist now are regarded as short-term risks with which an active struggle is being waged. They are trying to cope with the coronavirus pandemic with the help of mass vaccination, but problems continue to arise.

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Maria Shablon,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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