EUR/USD: Previous day's review
The Euro showed high activity yesterday. As a result, both the update of the local high and the sharp changes in the quote will be likely observed.
Important events in the economic calendar:
The preliminary data on the business activity index was published in Europe, which came out much better than forecast. The index in the service sector rose from 41.7 points to 47.3 points, while it rose from 53.8 points to 55.5 points in the manufacturing sector. Therefore, the positions of the euro receive impressive support, which resulted in the update of the local high.
The US published a similar index in the afternoon, where expectations almost coincided with the forecast.
Yesterday's main event was the Federal Open Market Commission (FOMC) meeting, where the key interest rate remained in the same level of 0-0.25% per annum, which initially favored the US dollar. During the press conference, the head of the Central Bank said that all programs to hype the markets with dollar liquidity will continue. Following this, the US dollar has rapidly become cheaper.
What happened on the trading chart?
Initially, the local high of the medium-term upward trend was updated, where the quote found variable resistance in the area of 1.2211, forming a correction in the direction of 1.2125. There was high activity during the results of the Fed meeting and the press conference, which eventually returned the quote to the area of the conditional high.
GBP/USD: Previous day's review
On December 16, the pound showed an active upward interest again. As a result, the local high of the medium-term trend was updated.
Important events in the economic calendar:
UK inflation was initially published, where an acceleration from 0.7% to 0.8% was expected, but as a result, the growth rate of consumer prices slowed to 0.3%. It might seem that we are faced with a negative factor for the UK economy, but there was none. The pound did not even react to the statistics and divergence of expectations. All the blame was the speculative hype associated with positive expectations for the Brexit trade deal.
Britain's preliminary data on the business activity index was published at 9:30 UTC+00, where the index in the service sector rose from 47.6 points to 49.9 points, while the index in the manufacturing sector even rose from 55.6 points to 57. 3 points, with a forecasted growth of 55.9.
The Fed meeting and press conference had a similar effect on the GBP/USD pair. Initially, there was a strengthening of the dollar, followed by a weakening.
What happened on the trading chart?
The pound sterling updated the local high, reaching the coordinates of 1.3550. This was followed by a pullback towards 1.3450. At the end of the trading day, the quote returned to the level of 1.3500, signaling the recovery process of the upward interest.
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD on December 17
The final data on Europe's inflation will be published today, where we can expect the previous indicator at the deflation level of -0.3, following from the preliminary estimate.
Market participants may not react due to the data confirmation.
In the second half of the day, there will be a publication of weekly data on the number of unemployment claims in the United States. Its volume is expected to increase, which may have a negative impact on the position of the dollar.
If we carefully look at the current trading chart, it can be seen that the quote has already updated yesterday's high, where the Euro continues to sharply rise. It can be assumed that the level of 1.2300, where stops were observed in history, can serve as the next resistance level. A pullback cannot be ruled out, in case of repetition of the regular basis with the area of 1.2300.
Trading recommendation for GBP/USD on December 17
The main focus today is the results of the Bank of England meeting at 12:00 Universal Time. Due to the rising risks, the regulator is likely to expand the quantitative easing program, following the path of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve System.
This step will result in the pound sterling's local weakening.
At the same time, the speculative hype associated with expectations of a positive result on the Brexit trade negotiations may return buyers. This is already happening in the market, where the recovery of a relatively recent pullback led to an update of the local high.
The moving tactics with the information flow stays the same:
Good news about Brexit may lead to the pound's strengthening.
Bad news about Brexit may lead to the pound's weakening.
