Analysis of Thursday's Deals

1H Chart for EUR/USD

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained a corrective sentiment. Volatility remained very low throughout the day due to Thanksgiving in the United States. We are unlikely to see even moderate movements today either. Nevertheless, the euro continues its gradual upward movement, aligning with our expectations. It is important to note that corrections typically last longer than one or two days. After a two-month decline, the pair could correct for a month or more. During this period, the price may oscillate, creating confusion for traders, particularly beginners. Additionally, corrections generally involve slower movements compared to impulsive trends. This week, there were no significant events to drive stronger market movements. On Thursday, Germany released a relatively important inflation report, which slightly supported the euro, but the market already seemed to be in holiday mode.

5M Chart for EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe Thursday, there was one trading signal near the 1.0526 level. However, daily volatility was only 40 points. Although the signal was accurate and valid, market activity remained subdued. Nevertheless, novice traders could have opened a long position, yielding approximately 10–20 points.

How to Trade on Friday

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to attempt a correction. However, the euro can only expect modest and slow upward movement. Over the next few days, the pullback may persist. On the weekly timeframe, the price has reached the frequently mentioned target—the lower boundary of the sideways channel. However, this does not guarantee the start of a new upward trend.

We believe that prices may continue to rise on Friday, but given today's weak macroeconomic background, another range-bound session like Thursday is possible.

Key Levels on the 5-Minute Timeframe:1.0269–1.0277, 1.0334–1.0359, 1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0845–1.0851, 1.0888–1.0896.No major events are scheduled in the U.S. for Friday, but the European Union is set to release an inflation report. This report will play an important role in forecasting future actions by the European Central Bank. If inflation rises above expectations, it could support the euro.

Key Trading System Rules

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time required to form a signal (rebound or level breakthrough), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more false signals occur near a level, all subsequent signals at that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, the pair may generate numerous false signals or none at all. If flat conditions arise, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trading Times: Open trades during the European session and close them manually by the middle of the U.S. session.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, only trade MACD signals when there is strong volatility and a confirmed trend via trend lines or channels.
6. Close Levels: Treat levels spaced 5 to 20 points apart as support or resistance zones.
7. Stop Loss Adjustment: Move the Stop Loss to break even after a 15-point move in the correct direction.

What's on the chart:

• Support and Resistance Levels: These levels serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can also be placed here.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines indicating the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
• MACD (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as auxiliary signal sources.
• News and Reports: Major events (found in the economic calendar) can significantly affect currency pair movements. During such events, trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid abrupt reversals.

Advice for Beginners

Forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are essential for long-term success in trading.